德银-美股-宏观经济-美联储观察员：数据支持四次加息的呼吁

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1、FedWatcher:DatasupportourfourMatthewLuzzettiSeniorEconomisthikecallamidmixedFedspeak(+1)2122506161

2、matthew.luzzetti@db.comBrettRyanSeniorEconomist(+1)2122506294

3、brett.ryan@db.comJustinWeidnerEconomist(+1)2124691679

4、justin-s.weidner@db.comAvikChattopadhyayAssociateavik.chatto

5、padhyay@db.comJanuary16,2018DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017Distributedon:16/01/201815:04:58GMTDeutscheBankResearchMatthewLuzzetti

6、(+1)2122506161

7、matthew.luzzetti@db.comJanuary16,20187T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDBFedWatcher:Datasupportourfourhik

8、ecallamidmixedFedspeakSummary:Fedspeakprovidedclarityon’18dots:Thisweek’sFedspeakprovidedalotofCPIprintprovidesfurtherevidenceofsomedovish(Bostic)&hawkish(Kaplan)surprises.clarityabout2018dotsfirminginflationtrendStrongerCPI,retailsalesdatasupportour4hikecall.%FOMCprojection

9、s%m/mClevelandFedtrimmedmean3.0ClevelandFedmedianDBView:Unchanged:4hikesin’18;3in’19GeorgeCoreCPIFedspeak0.42.5Mester,Richmond,RosengrenWho**TakeawaysImpact*0.3Dudley[2]SignsofinflationalreadyfirmingDudley,Kaplan,Powell,0.2Taxcutslift’18growth0.3-0.5pp2.0Quarles,Williams,

10、YellenWorriedaboutoverheatingBostic,Brainard,Harker0.1EvansBostic[3]2to3hikeslikelyappropriate0.01.5ExpectsinflationtonormalizeinKashkari’18;worriedaboutpersistentmiss-0.1BullardModestboostfromtaxcuts1.0-0.2Kaplan[3]3hikesstillgoodbasecase20182015201620172018Couldfall

11、behindcurveifwaitforSource:FOMC,DeutscheBankResearchSource:FRBCleveland,BLS,HaverAnalytics,DeutscheBankResearinflationSeeseconstrengtheverywhereFedGDPtrackersforQ4–2017EventstowatchthisweekEvans[2]Prefersnohikesuntilmid-18%q/q,AtlFed:3.3%WhenWhoSetting/topicSees2.5%growt

12、hthisyearNYFed:3.9%ARFedReleasesBeigeBookDBforecast:3.3%Bullard[1]Muchmorediscussionneeded5EvansSpeaksonEconomyandbeforechangestoframeworkMonetaryPolicyBenefitstopriceleveltargeting4Jan-17KaplanSpeaksonEconomyandFedshouldhaveonemandateofMonetaryPolicycontrollinginfla

13、tion3MesterDiscussesMonetaryPolicyRosengrenPreferstargetinginflationrange