德银-美股-宏观经济-美联储观察员：核心通胀数据支撑2018年四大方面上涨

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1、FedWatcher:EvidenceoffirmingMatthewLuzzettiSeniorEconomistcoreinflationsupportfourhikesin(+1)2122506161

2、matthew.luzzetti@db.com2018BrettRyanSeniorEconomist(+1)2122506294

3、brett.ryan@db.comJustinWeidnerEconomist(+1)2124691679

4、justin-s.weidner@db.comAvikChattopadhyayAssoc

5、iateavik.chattopadhyay@db.comDecember04,2017DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017Distributedon:04/12/201716:46:23GMTDeutscheBankResearchMatthewLuzzetti

6、(+1)2122506161

7、matthew.luzzetti@db.comDecember04,20170bed7b6cf11cDBFedWatcher:Ev

8、idenceoffirmingcoreinflationsupportfourhikesin2018Summary:LittlenewfromPowell,Yellentestimonies.CorePCEinflationstilllowonayear-over-ButthereisevidenceofafirmerinflationInflationshowingmoreconvincingsignsofpickingup.yearbasis,withwirelessinflationabigdragtrendinrecentm

9、onthsDBView:Wechangedourviewthisweek:ratehikein%y/yCorePCEinflation%Dec;4in2018versus3previously;3in2019versus4Fed’starget2.0CorePCEexwirelessinflation2.5previously;terminalrateunchanged.Fedspeak1.82.0Who**TakeawaysImpact*1.51.6Powell[3]CaseforDechikecomingtogetherLa

10、bormarketnotoverheating1.01.4Financialrulestoughenough0.5CorePCEinflation(3m%AR)Dudley[2]Notworriedinflationalittlebelow2%1.2CorePCEinflation(6m%AR)Taxcutscouldaffectpolicyoutlook141516170.0Yellen[2]LittlenewintestimonyNote:Ex.wirelessservicesseriesisonlyfromMar-

11、2017topresent.14151617Source:HaverAnalytics,BEA,DeutscheBankResearchSource:HaverAnalytics,BEA,DeutscheBankResearchHarker[3]NextyearunknownforratehikesWorriedaboutinflationrateofchangeFedGDPtrackersforQ4-2017EventstowatchthisweekKaplan[3]Wisetotakenexthikeinnearfut

12、ure%q/q,AtlFed:3.5%WhenWhoSetting/topicARNYFed:3.9%NoeventsforthisweekDB:2.8%Mester[4]Flattercurvenotreasontoslowhikes5Long-runnominalneutralrateat3%BigGDPimpactunlikelyfromtaxcut4Bullard[1]Taxplanhelpscapex/productivityAssetvaluationsbiggerissuein’183Inverte

13、dyieldcurveabearishsignFedresearch2Title/TakeawaysImpact*“What’sdownwithinflation?”102-Oct-201726-Oct-201717-Nov-2017