德银-美股-宏观经济-联邦观察员：cpi数据并未解决联邦的通胀之争

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1、FedWatcher:CPIdatadoeslittletosettleFed’sinflationdebateMatthewLuzzettiSeniorEconomist(+1)2122506161

2、matthew.luzzetti@db.comBrettRyanSeniorEconomist(+1)2122506294

3、brett.ryan@db.comJustinWeidnerEconomist(+1)2124691679

4、justin-s.weidner@db.comOctober16,2017DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFIC

5、ATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017Distributedon:16/10/201713:48:07GMTDeutscheBankResearch0bed7b6cf11cDBFedWatcher:CPIdatadoeslittletosettleFed’sinflationdebateSomeevidenceofafirmingtrendinCPIMoreevidenceofCPIfirming,butFed’sPolicyFedspeak:impact*inflation,despiteanotherdo

6、wnsidemiss:preferredmeasure(PCE)haslaggedYellen(Oct15):Littlenew.Continuesto%TrimmedmeanCPI3m%chg,ARCoreCPICorePCEsupportgradualratehikes,likelyincludingDec0.4CoreCPI3.5Kaplan(Oct13):AnothersteptotightenmayMedianCPI3.0be“wise”.SoundsunlikelytodissentDechike0.22.5Brainard(Oct12):Reit

7、erateddovishview.2.0%2.0Worriedaboutanegativefeedbackloopbetweenlowinflationandinflationexpectations1.51.3%0.01.0Bostic(Oct12):Expectsinflationtorisenextyear.Impactofbalancesheetunwindsmaller0.5thanQE.-0.20.0Evans(Oct11):TooearlytodecideonDecAug-16Dec-16Apr-17Aug-17Aug-16Dec-16Apr-1

8、7Aug-17Source:FRBCleveland,BLS,HaverAnalytics,DeutscheBankSource:BEA,BLS,HaverAnalytics,DeutscheBankhike.Inflationexpectationsworrying,butfundamentalsstrongandgettingbetter,wagesimprovingFedGDPtrackers(Q32017)Eventstowatchthisweek:FOMCSepMinutes(Oct11):Decratehikestillbasecasebutnot

9、adonedeal:“some%AtlantaFedtrackerKashkaritospeakinMinneapolis(Oct16)members”needevidenceweakinflationis4.5NYFedtrackerHarkertospeakinScranton,Pennsylvaniatransitory(Oct17)4.0FischertospeakatMoneyMarketersinNewWilliams(Oct11):Reiterationofearlierviews.3.5York(Oct18)Newinfo:expects

10、fedfundsat2.5%in2years3.02.7%DudleyandKaplantodiscusseconomicFedresearch:developmentinNewYork(Oct18)2.5“USMonetaryPolicyasaChangingDriverofFedtoreleaseBeigeBook(Oct18)2.0GlobalLiquidity”1.7%GeorgetospeakaboutU.S.economyin1.5Altus,Oklahama(Oct19)Globalliquidityflowshavebecome1.0

11、Mestertospeakonapan